SAN JOSE, Calif. — U.S. Senators Alex Padilla and Adam Schiff of California, joined by seven other senators, are pressing online trading platforms to discontinue betting markets linked to wildfires, contending the activity profits from tragedy and could establish dangerous incentives.
Their concerns follow more than $1.2 million in wagers placed during the 2025 Palisades and Eaton wildfires in Los Angeles.
According to the report, that figure was nearly 10 times the amount bet on a recent San Francisco Giants game.
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Online prediction markets have grown well beyond sports betting, now allowing users to wager on a broad array of real-world events, from weather and political speeches to esports and, most recently, wildfires.
“There’s starting to be the ability to actually place bets on whether wildfires will occur, how quickly they’ll spread. It’s monetizing human suffering and potential harm to people,” said Ann Skeet, senior director of leadership ethics at the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics at Santa Clara University.
Platforms such as Polymarket let users bet on outcomes ranging from elections to sports and other public events.
The surge in betting tied to major wildfires prompted the senators, including Padilla and Schiff, to send a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
In the letter, the lawmakers wrote: “Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit.”
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They also stated: “As the United States faces yet another record-breaking fire season this year, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) cannot allow these prediction markets to offer unrestricted betting on wildfires.”
Skeet said the practice raises concerns that go beyond ethics.
“We refer to it as perverse incentives, when someone’s motivated to do something that is not good, not serving society. And certainly in this case, the ability to start a fire”
The report also noted that a new website, Wyldfyre, launched this year and offers what it describes as the first real-time prediction market for California wildfires.
CAL FIRE said in a statement that safeguards are in place to prevent its firefighters from using predictive betting sites. However, the senators are seeking answers to several questions and are urging the commission to establish what they describe as common-sense guardrails.
Polymarket and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission had not responded to requests for comment. The senators have given the CFTC until Aug. 14 to respond to their letter.